Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Fulfilled or Not? - Billy Meier's prediction on the impact of 'Red Meteor or Asteroid Apophis'

Is it just another pseudoscientific claim or a genuine prediction?

 

An artist's conception of an asteroid hitting Earth


On May 4, 2015, Billy Meier's American media representative Michael Horn has published an article titled - New Confirmation of Billy Meier’s Warnings about Apophis. Any person who is already familiar with Meier's prediction on Red Meteor or Asteroid Apophis, after reading Michael Horn's latest article title, one might get the impression that we were at least FINALLY provided some real, tangible, strong evidence that scientifically establishes Billy Meier's contacts with Plejaren extraterrestrials.

But as it turns out, there is nothing new in his article that adds any weight or credibility to the already invalidated 'corroborated' claims of Michael Horn and some Meier/FIGU supporters made on Red Meteor. Besides we hear the same old pseudo-scientific and fallacious arguments. Having said that, let us first analyze the "new" evidence brought forth in the aforementioned article and then address the rest later. The two main claims being made in that article are:
  1. Meier published the Red Meteor prediction first in 1994 and not in 2001
  2. Meier called it 'Red Meteor' in 1994, one year before the Torino scale was created in 1995
Important note: The main assumption made by Michael Horn that Red Meteor that was mentioned by Meier in his contact notes years earlier is indeed the asteroid Apophis - will be dealt towards the end of this article. For now we will just restrict our discussion with the two main claims made by Michael Horn in his latest article.

1. Meier published the Red Meteor prediction first in 1994 and not in 2001

Michael Horn in his original article on Red Meteor titled - Danger of Collision with the Red Meteor! - mentioned that the information on Red Meteor in CR 150 was first published in FIGU co-founder and core group member Guido Moosbrugger's 1991 book 'Und sie fliegen doch!.' On that he wrote:

"In order to immediately establish the fact that Meier published his warnings about the Red Meteor (known to us now as Apophis) long before "official discovery", I direct readers to the easily established fact that this warning (in addition to the referenced transcripts below) appears on pages 316 and 317 of Guido Moosbrugger's book, And yet...they fly! - first published in English in September, 2001...three years before Apophis was discovered by terrestrial scientists.
 

It also appears on pages 265 and 266 of And still they fly!, - published in 2004.
However, both of these books are the English language translation of the orignal German language book, first published by Guido Moosbrugger in 1991....13 years before Apophis was discovered by terrestrial scientists. It is, therefore, absolutely ironclad, copyrighted, published proof of the Plejaren's and Meier's prophetic accuracy and truthfulness."

After sometime he added the following correction to the above claim:

(CORRECTION: I found that the text was not in the German book in 1991, though it was first published in German in 1981 and, as mentioned below, available in English shortly thereafter. Ofcourse, the copyright in English, in 2001, is ironclad.)

Are the claims made in the above correction true?

I own a copy of Guido's 1991 book Und sie fliegen doch! (which Michael Horn above referred to) and on pages 392-394, Guido for the first time published information from Contact Report 150 under the heading - Der rote Meteor. I even shared this information along with the scans of the pages from the book to Michael Horn on June 26, 2014 and asked him the source for his correction. He responded on the next day as follows:
"I don't remember at this time. I have so much to do now that many things from the past are not in the forefront of my memory. I could have gotten it from someone else, Dyson, etc. Of course if it is in the book that's great."

This prompted me to contact Dyson on the same day (June 27), to which he responded as follows:

"I don't own, nor do I have access to, Und Sie Fliegen Doch .."

Who- or whatever the source may be, for some reason Michael Horn didn't make the amendments then.

2. Meier called it 'Red Meteor' in 1994, one year before the Torino scale was created in 1995

Michael Horn argues that since 'Red Meteor' information was published - for the first time in 1994 (1991 to be exact), a year before the Torino scale was created in 1995, 3 years before it was first appeared in print in 1997 and 5 years before it was officially adopted by participants of the June 1999 international conference for NEOs, held in Torino (Turin), Italy - this "new" information provided by Matthew Knight "supports Anton Hahnekamp’s theory that there could be a connection between referring to Apophis as the Red Meteor and the Torino scale." Michael however acknowledges that this connection "still remains speculative."

Michael Horn published the following in his original website article based on Anton Hahnekamp's "theory":

"People may wonder why...they would refer to Apophis initially as the Red Meteor.

But an Austrian physicist has suggested that, by doing so, they were giving our own scientists a hint as to the absolute certainty that the object will collide with Earth if not deflected. In order to appreciate the very real possibility that this is the case, please read this information on the Torino scale. This may be an indication that, occasionally, we have to use our own minds to not only figure things out but to appreciate the intelligence of those who wish to help us...to help ourselves. And it should be further noted that the Torino scale was created by scientists in 1995, again, years after Meier's information was first published.

(NOTE: Aren't scientists always wondering if extraterrestrials will be "smart" enough to recognize our radio frequencies, or refer to some common scientific or mathematical standard, to make contact with us? Well, do we think that they may have passed such a "test" by pointing to a color standard that our scientists would use to identify an object that would hit us with absolute certainty? And might we take notice of the fact that they did that years before that standard was even created?)."


To inquire what FIGU knows, I have framed the following related question (along with others on different topics) and sent it to a FIGU Canada passive member so that he can directly ask the FIGU core group member and SSSC faculty director - Christian Frehner who at that time (Aug 2012) visited Canada to give out a lecture on Meier's story and his spiritual teachings:

"Did Billy gave the reason why Apophis asteroid was called as "Red Meteor" ? Some are speculating that the RED in 'red meteor' indicates the danger level in the scale of Torino scale( a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets). Even though, Apophis is considered an asteorid by scientists, Plejaren chose to call it a meteor. So, some say that since Apophis is similar to  LL chondritic meteorites, plejaren might have used that name but others reject that proposition. So was there any explanation given for why Plejaren used the name 'Red Meteor' for Apophis asteroid?"

Christian in response to my question however expressed that the 'Red' in 'Red Meteor' could be indicative of the color of the meteor rather than the danger level on Torino scale.

Concerning the speculations on the meaning of the color 'Red', the postdoctoral researcher in astronomy Stuart Robbins has responded as follows:

"Anyway, the first claim I want to address occurs at about 10:00-11:45 into the program (Ufoprophet Note: Hour 4 of the January 14 broadcast of Coast to Coast AM). The jist of what Horn states has to do with trying to do a post-hoc analysis/justification of why the alleged Plejarens call this object “Red.” He says he was contacted by an Austrian physicist who linked it to the Torino scale. Quoting the other person, Horn stated, “‘This could be’ – I’m not saying with certainty … – ‘their way, by naming it this, of giving us the ultimate clue we need’ – which this translates to, ‘this is going to hit your planet.’ … This just blew my mind. … Here’s the kicker: The scale wasn’t even developed until 1995!” (George’s response was, “Jeez! He was way ahead.”)

Hopefully, dear reader, I don’t have to point out how much of a retrodiction this is. But, just to name a few reasons: Meier could have picked “red” because historically it’s a color of destruction. He could have picked red because many people think that Planet X is red. He could have picked red just on a whim. He could have picked red because it’s a “danger” color and most scales use red for bad things – just look at the dashboard of your car. In short, entertaining this idea of the Torino Scale as the reason why an alleged alien allegedly told Meier that an object that will hit Earth is called “red” is one of the largest stretches of correlation that I’ve heard. (Source: Common sense.)"




Now let us move onto other claims made on Red Meteor by Michael Horn and others.
  • Petale Prophecy
  • Size of Apophis
3. Petale Prophecy 

Following is an excerpt from BMUFOR which invalidates Michael Horn/Meier's claim regarding the Petale Prophecy:

"The information about the Red Meteor has been highlighted since 2009 by Michael Horn as “an abundance of documented proof that Billy Meier has published specific, prophetically accurate information about Apophis.” Apart from the information from the contact reports (which will be dealt with later), his webpage also contains a Petale* Prophecy, received and typed down by Meier on Saturday, January 31, 1976, 01:05 AM (published in Prophetien, pg. 42-43, 1982 and Prophetien und Voraussagen, pg. 55, 1996):

A meteor from space – comet-like,
races close and crashes in the big pond,
the air it burns up as a glowing ball,
in the year of the three-value, with terrible sound,
with terrible howling, gigantic power,
as death-missile it crashes on the Earth.
As concentrated power racing through space,
it brings a deadly destroying seed.
Mountains, they crash and life, it dies;
a death-monster, which now spoils much,
loud cry the people all together in one voice,
their misery upward to Creation in heaven.
They scream and cry and plead to her,
for much blessing and love and help from now on
but they never thought about the great law,
about the love-request, which they broke.
They lived along, passing Creation by,
because all-the-while love was all the same to them.
Only the punishing power of the highest one,
allows a few to find their way back to the greatest One.

* Meier allegedly receives these prophecies from the highly evolved spirit level ‘Petale’ in a telepathically transmitted symbol language, which he then has to interpret and write down in German.

Michael Horn presents the above 1976 prophecy as follows:

"I am also now posting an even earlier warning from Petale, in poetic form, that was published by Meier in 1976 in the same document with the 1981 warning, which I first read in 1986"

Obviously, this prophecy is far too general and unspecific to be tied to any asteroid or comet in particular. Ironically this is illustrated by the fact that this prophecy was already earlier linked to an asteroid other than Apophis in an article by FIGU Core Group member Bernadette Brand in Stimme der Wassermannzeit, Nr. 78, pg. 23-27, March 1991 titled ‘Erfüllt sich bald eine weitere Prophetie?’ (Will another prophecy be fulfilled soon?). In this article the above Petale Prophecy was linked to the asteroid (4953) 1990 MU, discovered on June 23, 1990.

One reason she linked this asteroid with the Petale Prophecy could be because of the hint in the fourth line, which says that the time of impact would be “in the year of the three-value”. This means that the all digits in a year should count up to three, According to the articles mentioned by Brand published in the newspapers the Tages Anzeiger (Zurich) and Der Landbote (Winterthur) on August 20, 1990, it was initially speculated that it might impact with the Earth in 1992 (or several thousands of years later). When we add all the individual digits of the year '1992' we get 21 (1+9+9+2) and then if we again add those remaining individual digits of '21' we get 3 (2+1).

Of course, this would also fit with many other years, for example 2001, 2010, 2019, 2028, 2037 etc., so any asteroid or comet that would come dangerously close in those years would fit the prophecy, at least until it has passed and didn’t impact on Earth. This link lists all the predicted close encounters by Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) within 0.05 AU of the Earth from 2014 through 2178. Many PHAs are listed there that will closely approach Earth in the years with a ‘3’ value. This renders the scientific validation of the Petale prophecy as null since it can be recycled again and again for many countless years.

Now back to Michael Horn’s claim.
On the radio show Coast to Coast AM on July 28, 2004 (just after 1:05:00 minutes into the show) Michael mentioned that the Red Meteor might come dangerously close or may impact the Earth in a year with a numerological value of '3' and gave two examples, 2010 and 2019, for illustration purposes. However, according to the information conveyed to Meier by the Plejaren in 2008 (CR 471), the years in which Apophis will come close to Earth are given as 2029 and 2036, which yields the values of 4 and 2 respectively, but not 3. The first year with a 3 value in which Apophis will approach Earth will be 2091, but for 2029 and 2036 this prophecy obviously cannot be linked to Apophis. Even though the information from CR 471 clearly contradicts the information from Petale Prophecy, Michael Horn/Billy Meier seems to have no qualms in promoting the information contained in both the CR 471 and the Petale prophecy together.

4. Size of Apophis

Following is an excerpt from BMUFOR:

"On January 14, 2013 Michael Horn posted on his blog that scientists corrected their size estimation of Apophis from 270 meters to 325 meters, which comes close to the figure of 350 meters Ptaah gave Meier in CR 475. This may seem remarkable, although technically 350 meters is still outside the range of 325 ± 15 meters (= between 310 and 340 meters) indicated by the measurements of the Herschel space observatory. However, Wikipedia reads the following:

“Based upon the observed brightness, Apophis’s diameter was initially estimated at 450 metres (1,480 ft); a more refined estimate based on spectroscopic observations at NASA‘s Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii by Binzel, Rivkin, Bus, and Tokunaga (2005) is 350 metres (1,150 ft).”

It’s remarkable that the size mentioned in CR 475 exactly matches an earlier size estimation of Apophis by terrestrial science. Later, the size estimate for Apophis was changed multiple times. Using wayback machine for NASA’s data page for Apophis we can see the history of Apophis size estimate. For this page wayback machine goes back as far as October 18, 2005. Below a list of dates on which the size estimate on the page was changed compared to the previous version of the page that was archived in wayback machine:

October 18, 2005 – 320 meters
October 24, 2006 – 250 meters
July 1, 2008 – 270 meters
February 27, 2013 – 330 meters

This doesn’t necessarily mean a new measurement was actually made on these dates, this could have been months before the value on the page was updated. For example the figure of 270 meters already shows up in this article from October 16, 2007, at least 6 months before the size was changed on NASA’s page. It is clear though that during the time CR 475 allegedly took place (November 26, 2008) and was published (2010) the latest size estimate was 270 meters. Does that suggest Meier indeed got accurate information from extraterrestrial source? Actually, no. It is not an unknown phenomenon that media are often very sloppy in checking their sources, and a figure that has been used during the time that something was a ‘hot topic’, like for example the possible impact of Apophis on Earth, will often be recycled over and over again in later articles, despite the fact that it has been corrected in the mean time. Since 350 meters was one of the early size estimates, it isn’t surprising that during the period CR allegedly took place and was published, both the figure of 270 and the 350 meters were available in articles referring to Apophis. Just a small selection of news articles in which both values are mentioned:

August 15, 2006 – 350 meters: Asteroid and comet impacts: the ultimate environmental catastrophe
October 29, 2007 – 350 meters: Protecting Earth Against Asteroids
April 15, 2008 – 270-350 meters: 13 Yr. Old German Corrects NASA’s 99942 Apophis Impact Probability Calculations
April 19, 2008 – 270 meters: How Big is Apophis?
November 3, 2008 – 270 meters: Astronomers hunt for Earth-bound killer rocks
December 30, 2009 – 270 meters: Russia May Head Mission to Deflect Asteroid Apophis
December 31, 2009 – 350 meters: Russia’s secret plan to save Earth from asteroid
August 1, 2010 – 270 meters: Odds of Earth Getting Slammed by Asteroid in 2182 is About 1-in-2000
October 27, 2010 – 350 meters: Apophis’ power surpasses all nuclear arsenals on Earth

To illustrate how long an obsolete value is still used by media, check this article from December 30, 2014, which still mentions a size of 350 meters, despite linking to a NASA page which mentions a size of 330 meters (325 rounded to 330). If one would have done a quick internet search during the period 2008-2010 period for the size of Apophis and accept the first value that shows up, one would most likely end up with either 270 or 350 meters. This doesn’t conclusively prove Meier got his information on the size of Apophis from news articles etc., but it also certainly isn’t clearly evident that he got it from extraterrestrials, to say the least."



Information from Meier's Contact Report 544 (September 2012) and CR 150 (October 1981) contradicts the scientific consensus on the origin of Apophis and also the most established fact in astronomy, which is the origin location of asteroids in our solar system.

5. Origin of the Red Meteor

Following is an excerpt from BMUFOR:

"According to Quetzal in CR 150 the Red Meteor "approaches from the depths of outer space towards the SOL-system and is a so-called stranger (German: Fremdling)" and it  "travels on a path, which leads it to the SOL-system for the first time." In CR 544 Ptaah confirms the Red Meteor is from the Oort cloud.

This seems to be contradictory, as the Oort cloud is considered as the outer boundary of the Solar System, still a part of the Solar System. Nevertheless one could also argue that the Oort cloud region is considered as ‘the depths of outer space’, since the border between the solar system and ‘outer space’ cannot be clearly defined. Or maybe the Red Meteor came from other systems and spent some time in the Oort cloud before entering the inner solar system for the first time. But does this information actually fit with Apophis?

Apophis asteroid belongs to a group known as Aten family. These do not belong to the asteroid belt and their orbits are at least for the greatest part within the orbit of the Earth, resulting in orbital periods of less than a year. The first illustration below shows the region where these asteroids orbit around the sun. According to the The SAO Encyclopedia of Astronomy, “although some are no doubt extinct cometary nuclei, it is now thought that the majority originate in the main asteroid belt.” The second illustration shows the orbit of Apophis. As can be seen its orbit is relatively circular and lies within the ecliptic plane.

Objects originating from the Oort cloud are typically long period comets (only roughly one to two percent of the Oort cloud objects are asteroids) with highly elliptical orbits which come from all directions, while Apophis is an asteroid with with a rather circular orbit in the ecliptic plane and an orbital period of less than a year. These facts speak strongly against an origin from the Oort cloud and that it would travel “on a path, which leads it to the SOL-system for the first time” as Quetzal states in CR 150.
The Aten asteroid group (shown in green). The Sun is in the center, with the planets Mercury (black), Venus (yellow), Earth (blue) and Mars (red).
Orbit of the asteroid Apophis around the Sun
When this was pointed out to Meier by Mahesh Karumudi aka Mahigitam on March 29, 2015 in FIGU Q/A forum, Meier responded as follows:

Billy,
According to your information (Contact Report 544) the Red Meteor/Apophis has an origin in the Oort Cloud.
http://futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Contact_Report_544

Meier:
…Dazu dann auch gleich die Frage in bezug auf den prophetisch angekündeten Roten Meteor: Kommt dieser auch aus der Oortschen Wolke?
Ptaah:
Das ist tatsächlich richtig..

Typical characteristics for objects from the Oort Cloud, according to science are:

– They approach the inner solar system from all directions, not only within the ecliptic plane
– They are usually comets (only roughly 1 to 2 percent are asteroids)
– They have highly elliptical, long period orbits

Likewise according to science, Apophis has rather a short orbital period (less than a year) and rather circular orbit within the ecliptic plane. And it is referred to as a near-Earth asteroid belonging to ATEN group – broadly speaking asteroids that are inside Mars orbit. See the following link for Apophis orbital path.
http://www.daviddarling.info/images/Apophis_orbit.gif

How do you explain this apparent discrepancy?

Practical everything (all such objects) comes from the Oort Cloud / Kuiper Belt.
And regarding the Red Meteor it can be assumed that Ptaah is more knowledgeable in astronomical matters than terrestrial scientists.


Meier in his first statement apparently states that all objects such as meteors, asteroids and comets originate in the Oort Cloud or Kuiper Belt. Though it is true that the origin of comets is attributed to both Kuiper belt and Oort cloud, it is patently absurd and wrong to say that all the asteroids too originate in the Oort cloud or Kuiper belt since the basic astronomical science indicates that a vast majority of the asteroids originate in the inner solar system and primarily orbit in the asteroid belt between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter."

Now the answer to the sub-title of this article -  'is it another pseudoscientific claim or a genuine prediction?' - is obvious and strongly points to a pseudoscientific claim. For other pseudoscientific-claims on the Red Meteor's potential impact location and the most important one - the connection between Meier's 'Red Meteor' and the Asteroid Apophis, visit BMUFOR.